Igba Akpoesiri Christopher¹ | Onyinye Ogomegbunam Mgbemena²
¹ Department of Economics, College of Management Sciences, Michael Okpara University of Agriculture, Umudike, Abia State, Nigeria
² Department of Economics, Michael Okpara University of Agriculture, Umudike (Supervisor)
Correspondence: igbaakpoesirichristopher@gmail.com
Submission Category: Original Research Article | JEL Codes: I32, Q54, C22, O55
Abstract
Nigeria’s multidimensional poverty crisis—affecting 133 million people (MPI = 0.257; NBS & OPHI, 2022)—unfolds against a backdrop of intensifying climate stressors, yet the long-run macroeconomic relationship between climatic variables and multidimensional poverty outcomes remains insufficiently characterised in the empirical literature. This study addresses this lacuna by deploying national time-series evidence spanning 43 years (1981–2024). An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach, complemented by structural break-adjusted Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root tests (Zivot-Andrews / Vogelsang, 1993 asymptotic p-values), was employed to estimate both long-run equilibrium parameters and short-run adjustment dynamics. The dependent variable is the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI); independent variables comprise average annual temperature (TEMP), annual rainfall (RAINFALL), drought frequency (DGHT), CO₂ emissions, consumer price index (CPI), and GDP per capita (GDPPC). Model selection proceeded via the Akaike Information Criterion, yielding the optimal specification ARDL. Bounds testing confirms a long-run cointegrating equilibrium (F-statistic = 3.71, exceeding the I(1) upper bound at 10% significance for finite sample n = 40). The long-run CO₂ coefficient is statistically significant and negative (β = −2.52×10⁻⁶; p = 0.0001), establishing emissions-driven asset erosion as the primary long-run poverty amplifier. The error correction term (ECT = −0.995; p = 0.052) indicates near-complete single-period adjustment to deviations from equilibrium. In the short run, lagged rainfall deficits (ΔRAIN(−3): β = 6.63×10⁻⁵; p = 0.020) and inflationary pressures (ΔCPI(−1), ΔCPI(−3): p < 0.05) emerge as the dominant proximate poverty drivers. Post-estimation diagnostics confirm model reliability: Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey heteroskedasticity test p = 0.948; Breusch-Godfrey serial correlation LM test p = 0.771; R² = 0.994. A stable, long-run equilibrium unambiguously links climate change—operationalised through greenhouse gas accumulation—to multidimensional poverty deepening in Nigeria. Short-run rainfall variability constitutes a proximate poverty shock through agricultural entitlement erosion. These findings demand the integration of climate resilience into macroeconomic stabilisation frameworks, with particular urgency for food inflation management and emissions-reduction financing.
Keywords: Multidimensional Poverty Index; ARDL Bounds Testing; Cointegration; Climate Change; Nigeria; Sustainable Livelihoods Framework; CO₂ Emissions; Time-Series Econometrics.