DADA, M. A.
Department of Economics
College of Entrepreneurship and Development Studies,
Federal University of Agriculture Abeokuta, Nigeria
mattabeyvoice2@yahoo.com; ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2080-6082
POSU, S. M. A
Department of Economics
College of Entrepreneurship and Development Studies
Federal University of Agriculture Abeokuta, Nigeria
OMOARE, O. E.
Department of Business Administration
Ogun State Polytechnic Igbesa, Ogun State, Nigeria
ABALABA, B. P.
Department of Economics
College of Social and Management Sciences
Osun State University Osogbo, Nigeria
OGUNTEGBE, A. A.
Department of Business Administration
The Polytechnic Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria
ABSTRACT
This study tested the explanatory power of government agricultural expenditures with particular interest
in finding out whether past expenditures matter in explaining agricultural productivity and food security
in Nigeria, using finite distributed lagged models. Annual time series data were obtained and tested for
unit root to determine the order of integration. Finite distributed lagged models were estimated using
OLS method having confirmed the variables to be level stationary. The result shows that past
expenditures explain variations in agricultural productivity and food security. The study searched for
the best models from zero-lag to nine-lag models, the eight-lag models were found to be the best models
in both cases with case 1, having an adjusted R2 =0.614; F-stat=4.538(0.011) and case 2, having an
adjusted R2 =0.40; F-stat =2.474(0.079). The result shows that past expenditures matter in explaining
agricultural productivity and food security in Nigeria. The policy implication is non-exclusion of past
fiscal actions while explaining some current events. The study concluded that past fiscal actions matter
in predicting agricultural productivity and food security in Nigeria.
Keywords: Agricultural expenditure, agricultural productivity, food security, distributed lagged
models